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Submitted by TheAcsMan on Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:03
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Submitted by TheAcsMan on Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:40
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Schadenfreude Suits Me Just Fine

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Fri, 04/26/2013 - 17:55

Is it really "schadefreude" when you don't really know or see the people upon whom misfortune has been heaped?

For those that aren't familiar with the word, "schadenfreude" is the strangely good feeling that some people derive when others fail or are subject to misfortune.

In Talmudic teaching the highest form of charity is when neither the donor nor the recipient are aware of one another's identity. Complete ignorance raises the act of charity to a higher level.

Of course, we will never be able to answer the question of whether there is really a sound produced when a tree falls in the forest and there is no one present to lay witness. A single degree of separation can completely call into question that which seems patently obvious. Ignorance of an event can be is as if it doesn't even exist.

Being a covered option seller, I do take some perverse pleasure and satisfaction when the market goes lower, even though I know that the vast majority of investors, especially the individual investor, fares well only when the markets are moving higher.

When I sell longer term call options, such as the monthly variety, I just love seeing the share price exceed my strike level early during the term of the contract, only to watch those gains dissipate as the term nears its end, especially if the end returns right to the strike price.

Finish reading article on Seeking Alpha

Finally Feeling Bullish

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Sun, 04/21/2013 - 17:55

I'm finally feeling bullish. Sort of.

Two months ago I started getting a very uneasy feeling.

Normally, money burns a hole in my pocket. Sadly for the economy, that's not the case when it comes to consumer goods, but it's definitely the case when it comes to stocks.

Selling options, and predominantly of the weekly variety, I often have had the pleasure of awaking Monday morning to see freshly deposited cash in my account as shares upon which I had written weekly call contracts were assigned.

But that has changed recently, ever since that uneasy feeling hit.

The principal change was not immediately going out on shopping sprees on Monday mornings and instead building up cash caches. Among the changes were also the use of longer option contract periods because of the realization that so often market downturns happen suddenly and I would prefer not to be caught flat-footed or in-between contracts when and if it does occur.

But now, after what is the worst week of 2013, it may be time for yet another transition, of sorts.

As the April 2013 cycle has come to an end and many of those contracts have been assigned or rolled over to May 2013, being flush with cash at a time that some stocks have had some meaningful declines introduces temptation.

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Reversing Direction

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Sun, 04/14/2013 - 17:55

Increasingly modern science is helping to bring great clarity to an understanding of the very essence of our universe's existence. Yet there remain some questions that will likely forever escape our ability to comprehend.

Some questions, such as the perennial "what is the meaning of life?" do not have a "Higgs-Boson" to provide a unifying hypothesis and can simultaneously provide contentment as well as contention.

I prefer to ask a very basic question that rarely has an answer. "What were they thinking?" Sometimes I ask a variant of that question - "What was I thinking?" Lately I've been asking the latter quite a bit.

What perplexes me, though, is how such two groups of smart people can convincingly commit themselves to opposite sides of an investment or so convincingly change their allegiances. I suppose that same observation can be applied toward the issue of nations going to war and then pursuing peace. The reasons aren't always clear, yet the convictions are rock solid.

In this case, it's one of my long time favorites and most recently under-performing stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) that is at the center of my attention. It happens to report earnings this coming week and any significant price changes ahead of earnings reflect conviction and large bets to back up that conviction.

Shifting Away From Defense

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Fri, 04/05/2013 - 17:55

I'm was beginning to feel like one of those Pacific Island soldiers that never found out World War II had ended and remained ever-presently vigilant for an impending attack that never came.

Amazingly, some held up their vow to defend for decades while I'm having difficulty after a bit more than a month waiting for a correction. Nothing big, just in line with this same time period in 2012, as I see lots of similarities to that time, not only in the parallel nature of the charts, but also in my own less than stellar performances, having been selling covered options as religiously as a sentinel keeps an eye on the horizon.

Having weathered the acute shock value of Cyprus, decreasing economic growth in China, currency manipulation in Japan and digested the initial uncertainty of the Korean Peninsula, it looked as if any sentinel for a sell-off would be a lonely soldier.

Be Prepared, But Don't Be Crazy

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Sun, 03/31/2013 - 18:14

It's said that George Eastman, founder of Eastman Kodak (EKDKQ), was quite methodical as he approached the end of his life and was prepared to put his escape plan into action.

"My work here is done" may be a very logical way to approach any kind of transition, although it doesn't have to be taken to the extreme that Eastman felt was appropriate under his circumstances. Be prepared, but don't be crazy.

I've been transitioning a portfolio for almost a month in anticipation of the market taking a break and perhaps giving back some of its gains; maybe even a lot of its gains.

Doing so has made me much less fun to be around, but circumstances do change and being prepared for plausible scenarios means having exit strategies and surviving to see them do as planned until it's time to exit the exit strategy. Once my work is done I can't wait to get back to work.

I for one was glad to see the first quarter of 2013 come to an end. Fortunately, as a covered option seller, my remaining life span may not be sufficient to see another opening yearly quarter such as this past one, as the last such period was in 1987.

You may or may not remember how that year ended, but let's just say that a single day 500 point drop back then was a lot more meaningful than it would be today.

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Common Sense Says It's Time for Qiality, Dividends and Premiums

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:14

Common sense tells us that at some point there has to be some retracement following an impressive climb higher. My common sense has never been very good, so I'm beginning to question the pessimism that overtook me about 4 weeks ago.

Maybe the new version of a market plunge is simply staying at or near the same level for a few days. After all, who doesn't believe that if you're not moving ahead that you're falling behind? It is all about momentum and growth. Besides, if history can be re-written by the victors, why not the rules that are based on historical observations?

During the previous 4 weeks I've made very few of the trades that I would have ordinarily made, constantly expecting either the sky to fall down or the floor to disappear from underneath. Of the trades, most have fallen in line with the belief that what others consider a timeless bit of advice. Investing in quality companies with reliably safe dividends may be timeless, but it can also be boring. Of course, adding in the income from selling options and it's less so, but perhaps more importantly better positioned to cushion any potential drops in an overall market.

That makes sense to me, so there must be something flawed in the reasoning, although it did work in 2007-2009 and certainly worked in 1999-2000. I can safely say that without resorting to a re-writing of history.

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Looking for Bargains and Safety

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Sun, 03/17/2013 - 18:14

Many stock charts look similar lately. For those old enough to remember Alan Greenspan's first year as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, the upward slope was all that many new investors and stock brokers had known for 5 years.

You may or may not recall how that second year went for him. It was the year that the stock market re-discovered the concept of gravity and the more complex notion of negative numbers.

To hear the one time Federal Reserve Chairman intone yesterday that the market is greatly undervalued sends whatever message you would like to hear when you digest his words.

"Irrational exuberance is the last term I would use to characterize the performance at the moment."

The key to escaping responsibility and a stain on your prognosticating ability is the phrase "at the moment." I use that a lot myself, as any moment can end up being the inflection point. It's just too bad that the television cameras aren't rolling at that point.

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The Clock is Ticking on the S&P 500

Submitted by TheAcsMan on Thu, 03/14/2013 - 14:04
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The age old question and certainly having its application in the stock markets is how does one see the glass. Is it half full or half empty? Is the market going higher from the current levels or have we already seen its best days?

I often like to say that I neither believe in technical nor fundamental analyses. Saying so is probably a reflection of the denial that has me refusing to believe that my intellectual capacity has greatly diminished.

While not really spending terribly much time with charts, I do glance at them. Like the spooky kid from "The Sixth Sense," I do think I occasionally see patterns. I suppose to some degree that's somehow related to a very basic aspect of technical analysis.

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